Massive Solar PV potential in Sri Lanka

BY Eng. Darsha Jayathunga, Eng. Tharanga Wickramarathna, Eng (Prof..) Hirushie Karunathilake, Eng (Prof..) Sanjeeva Witharana


Today, climate change and environmental pollution have become serious challenges for the mankind. Energy use for human activities has been identified as a major culprit responsible for climate change and other environmental problems. The greenhouse gases (GHG) and other emissions from fossil fuel-based energy use contribute to global warming, water and air pollution, health impacts, and various other negative impacts. In addition, fossil fuels can face supply constraints and fluctuating prices, especially with the changing global dynamics. All of the above factors have made it evident that it is necessary to make the shift to indigenous renewable energy resources. Sri Lanka is currently facing a severe energy crisis, which partially stems from the insufficient exploitation of indigenous renewable energy resources, in turn leading to continued high reliance on imported fossil fuel. Even though Sri Lanka is endowed with a variety of renewable energy resources, there is a lack of energy security, and is failing to provide an uninterrupted energy supply at affordable prices to the populace. Energy poverty is sharply increasing, while the industrial activities are painfully disrupted. Moreover, according to data published by the World Bank Group, CO2 emission per capita is increasing in the country [1]. Thus, as a country, Sri Lanka direly needs to find the best pathways to make the sustainable energy transition preferably with the use of local resources and technologies. At present, as major hydro resource potential has been almost fully exploited, solar energy is the best next option available for the country. Solar PV technology has shown a dramatic reduction in levelized cost of energy (LCOE) over the last few decades [2]. As a result, the global solar PV installed capacity is rapidly increasing, with China leading the way, followed by the United States, Japan, India, Germany, Australia, the Republic of Korea, and Spain in descending order of total installed capacity [3]. Table 1 reports installed PV capacity as a ratio of total ground area available in each of the aforementioned countries.


Building-Integrated PV (BIPV) installations can provide numerous benefits for countries with limited land area and congested urban spaces. This approach has the advantage of making use of existing rooftops and facades, which saves space that would otherwise be wasted and reduces costs and resource requirements. As a result, various models and programs have been developed to promote rooftop solar (RTS) power generation by incentivizing citizens. To name a few models, the OPEX (PPA) model, the CAPEX model, the CAPEX+ OPEX model, and the RESCO model [4][5]. RTS promoting programs include the provision of solar panels at a reduced cost with World Bank Group support in India, the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) and Community solar programs in the United States [6], the Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) program in Korea [7], and SEAT Al Sol in Spain [8]. Most of these programs are primarily concerned with the provision of incentives, low taxes, subsidies, and support schemes, or a combination of a few of these.

Identifying solar power generation potential is critical for developing RTS strategies. Geographic location, time of day, season, weather, and landscape are all factors that influence solar radiation [9]. Sri Lanka receives 1247-2106 kWh/m2 of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) [10], resulting in a massive solar PV potential. With approximately 434 MW of installed solar capacity [11], solar currently accounts for 4.37% of electricity generation in Sri Lanka [12]. Therefore, it is worthwhile to investigate the total rooftop installation capacity in each province, as the available rooftop area is not sufficiently utilized at the moment. A recent study conducted by us estimates 22.50 km2, 10.77 km2, 14.95 km2, and 68.83 km2 of rooftop area available that can be used to install solar PV and graphically illustrated in Figure 1. As a consequence, the total rooftop area available in all four provinces considered is approximately 115 km2, with the Western province having the most rooftop availability for solar PV installation. After determining the above areas, the potential solar PV installing capacities were identified and validated for the selected provinces.


Figure 1: Total available rooftop areas in selected provinces that can be used for rooftop solar PV installation.

Accordingly, 4.88 GW, 2.34 GW, 3.24 GW, and 14.92 GW of solar PV installation capacity in Sabaragamuwa, Western, Northern, and North Central provinces respectively, resulting in 8.55 TWh, 4.09 TWh, 5.86 TWh, and 26.15 TWh of annual electricity generation potential, as shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3.


Figure 2: PV Installation Capacity in Sabaragamuwa, Northern, North Central, and Western provinces.


Figure 3: Annual Electricity Generation in Sabaragamuwa, Northern, North Central, and Western provinces.

Furthermore, it was determined that if this rooftop potential is utilized to deploy solar PV, it can lead to a carbon emissions reduction amounting to 20,401,200.15 tCO2 (e) per year in total for the selected provinces. Our analysis results further indicate that by implementing a carbon crediting Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Sri Lanka has the potential to earn US$ 78 million annually. Therefore, this is the type of energy project Sri Lanka should be looking forward to, in particular in energy and economic crisis of the present nature.

References

    • [1]       World Bank Group, “CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) | Data,” World Bank Group, 2022. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?end=2019&start=1990&view=chart (accessed Nov. 24, 2022).
    • [2]       Statista, “CSP installation cost worldwide 2021,” Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/809796/global-solar-power-installation-cost-per-kilowatt/ (accessed Nov. 24, 2022).
    • [3]       “Existing capacity of solar PV worldwide by select country 2021,” Statista, 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/264629/existing-solar-pv-capacity-worldwide/ (accessed Nov. 24, 2022).
    • [4]       D. Singh, J. Sinha, and G. Shrimali, “The Residential Rooftop Solar Accelerator,” no. September, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/The-Residential-Rooftop-Solar-Accelerator_Instrument-Analysis.pdf.
    • [5]       “Understanding the Two Solar Business Models: CAPEX & RESCO,” Galaxy Solar, 2022. https://galaxysolarenergy.com/understanding-the-two-solar-business-models-capex-resco/ (accessed Nov. 24, 2022).
    • [6]       US Department of Energy, “Biden-Harris Administration Launches New Solar Initiatives to Lower Electricity Bills and Create Clean Energy Jobs,” US Department of Energy, 2022. https://www.energy.gov/articles/biden-harris-administration-launches-new-solar-initiatives-lower-electricity-bills-and (accessed Nov. 24, 2022).
    • [7]       “How to encourage residents and businesses to install building-scale clean energy,” c 40 knowledge, 2022. https://www.c40knowledgehub.org/s/article/How-to-encourage-residents-and-businesses-to-install-building-scale-clean-energy?language=en_US (accessed Nov. 24, 2022).
    • [8]       Verdict Media Limited, “SEAT Al Sol - Rooftop Solar Project, Spain,” Power Technology, 2022. https://www.power-technology.com/marketdata/seat-al-sol-rooftop-solar-project-spain/ (accessed Nov. 24, 2022).
    • [9]       US Department of Energy, “Solar Radiation Basics,” Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 2013. https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-radiation-basics (accessed Aug. 31, 2022).
    • [10]     “Solar Energy | Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority,” Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, 2021. http://www.energy.gov.lk/index.php/en/renewable-energy/technologies/solar-energy (accessed Aug. 17, 2022).
    • [11]     “Sri Lanka launches tender for 100 MW solar park,” PV magazine, 2022. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/08/29/sri-lanka-launches-tender-for-100-mw-solar-park/ (accessed Nov. 24, 2022).
    • [12]     Global Data Change Lab, “Share of Electricity Production by Source, Sri Lanka,” Our World in Data, 2022. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-elec-by-source?country=~LKA (accessed Sep. 01, 2022).
    • [13]     L. Jinko Solar Co., “Estimating the capacity of rooftop solar in selected provinces in Sri Lanka,” 2020. Accessed: Aug. 05, 2022. [Online]. Available: www.jinkosolar.com.
    • [14]     J. Ratnasiri, “Renewable energy share in power generation,” President’s Media Division, 2020. https://srilankatwo.wordpress.com/2020/09/26/renewable-energy-share-in-power-generation-president-misled-by-advisers/ (accessed Aug. 19, 2022).


     

    ENG. DARSHA JAYATHUNGA

    UNIVERSITY OF MORATUWA



     

    Eng. Tharanga Wickramarathna

    Project Manager (Mannar & Pooneryn Wind Projects)-REP & PM Branch, Acting Project Manager (Broadlands Hydropower Project) at Ceylon Electricity Board


     

    Eng. (Prof.) Hirushie Karunathilake

    Assistant Professor of Engineering, University of Pittsburgh



     

    Eng. (Prof.) Sanjeeva witharana

    University of Moratuwa




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